The early signing period for the Class of 2026, which ran from December 3 to 5, 2025, highlighted the unpredictable nature of modern college football recruiting. With the transfer portal and NIL deals reshaping priorities, high school signings still carry significant weight for long-term program building. This cycle featured dramatic flips, such as Vanderbilt's acquisition of the nation's top quarterback, and stark contrasts in outcomes, from USC's dominance to Penn State's collapse. Below, I analyze the biggest winners and losers, drawing on detailed recruiting data and exploring the underlying factors that drove their success or failure. These insights reveal how on-field performance, coaching stability, and strategic recruitment efforts can make or break a class.

Biggest Winners

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt achieved a landmark victory by flipping five-star quarterback Jared Curtis—the No. 1 overall prospect in the 247Sports Composite rankings—from Georgia on December 2, just before the signing period began (Loy, 2025). At 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Curtis, a Nashville native from Nashville Christian School, has thrown for nearly 10,000 career yards, including 1,863 yards, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 2025 despite an ankle injury (Robinson, 2025). This marks Vanderbilt's first five-star signee in the modern era and propelled their class from outside the top 50 to No. 26 nationally, with 21 total signees (Ivins, 2025).

The flip succeeded due to a combination of immediate opportunity and program momentum. Curtis prioritized early playing time, and with quarterback Diego Pavia's eligibility expiring after Vanderbilt's historic 10-2 season and bowl berth—their first since 2013—Curtis is positioned to start as a true freshman (Lederman, 2025a). Coach Clark Lea's six-year extension on November 28 addressed stability concerns, while local ties, including comedian Nate Bargatze's public endorsement on College GameDay and Pavia attending Curtis's games, amplified Vanderbilt's appeal (Robinson, 2025). Vanderbilt's 2025 resurgence, including a highest AP ranking since 1937, demonstrated tangible progress, convincing Curtis that Nashville offered a clearer path to stardom than Georgia's stacked depth chart (Hayes, 2025). This strategic focus on one high-impact recruit could catalyze Vanderbilt's rise from SEC underdog to consistent contender.

USC Trojans

USC secured the No. 1 recruiting class for the first time since 2006—the first non-SEC top spot since Miami in 2008—signing 35 prospects with an average 247Sports rating of 91.80, including 20 four- or five-stars (Ivins, 2025; VanHaaren, 2025). Key additions featured five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe (No. 5 overall, a 6-foot-7, 320-pound IMG Academy standout projected as a Day 1 NFL starter) and a Day 1 flip of four-star wide receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (No. 135 overall) from Ohio State (Loy, 2025). The class emphasized trenches, with 15 linemen (seven offensive, eight defensive), and 20 California natives—57% in-state, up from 25% in 2025 (Bowden, 2025).

USC's triumph stemmed from a deliberate overhaul in personnel and regional focus. Hiring general manager Chad Bowden from Notre Dame for over $1 million annually in early 2025 enabled aggressive NIL structuring, including seven-figure multi-year deals paid partially upfront to comply with emerging regulations (Lederman, 2025b). This, paired with the Big Ten move's financial boost, drew West Coast elites wary of SEC competition, outmaneuvering Ohio State in battles like Dixon-Wyatt's (Ivins, 2025). Coach Lincoln Riley's seven prior top-10 classes (Oklahoma/USC) provided credibility, while Bowden's NFL-style operation—retaining scouts like Aaron Amaama—prioritized volume over hype, addressing defensive line deficiencies that plagued 2025's 7-5 season (Bowden, 2025). If integrated with transfers, this haul positions USC for playoff relevance by 2027, restoring its recruiting powerhouse status.

LSU Tigers

Under new coach Lane Kiffin, hired November 30 after Brian Kelly's October firing, LSU signed 11 prospects on Day 1, building a top-12 class with the nation's highest average rating of 93.61 (Martinez, 2025). Standouts included five-star defensive lineman Richard Anderson (top defender nationally) and four-star offensive lineman Brysten Martinez (No. 10 OT, a 6-foot-5, 305-pound Gonzales native) (Anderson, 2025). Kiffin flipped three from Ole Miss—four-star tight end JC Anderson (No. 8 TE), three-star defensive lineman Javier Miret (flipped December 2), and four-star wide receiver Brayden Allen (from Oklahoma)—while retaining five-star athlete Lamar Brown (No. 2 overall), who delayed signing pending staff assembly (Lederman, 2025c).

Kiffin's rapid success leveraged his Ole Miss connections and Baton Rouge's allure amid post-Kelly flux. Flips like Anderson's followed tight ends coach Joe Cox from Oxford, exploiting 48-hour windows post-hire (Wiltfong, 2025). Despite losses like four-star wideout Kenny Darby reopening recruitment, Kiffin's offensive pedigree—raiding South Carolina for quarterback Landon Duckworth (top-10 passer)—secured skill talent, while locals like Martinez bolstered lines (Cox, 2025). The class's elite rating reflects targeted raids, turning uncertainty into a reload for SEC West contention, with Brown's potential February close adding upside (Martinez, 2025). Kiffin's experience suggests seamless integration, positioning LSU to challenge Alabama by 2027.

Biggest Losers

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State's class imploded without a head coach, signing just two prospects—three-star quarterback Peyton Falzone (No. 22 QB, who recommitted post-Auburn flip) and four-star defensive end Jackson Ford—ranking 150th nationally, below FCS programs like South Dakota State and McNeese, and last in the Big Ten (behind Nebraska at 111th) (Dohn, 2025; Toppmeyer, 2025a). From a top-20 class in mid-October, 24 decommitments followed James Franklin's October 12 firing after a 3-3 start, including Day 1 flips of four-star safety Matt Sieg to West Virginia and four-star linebacker Terry Wiggins to Franklin's Virginia Tech (now top-25) (Finebaum, 2025). Franklin poached 11 total commits, gutting the board (Toppmeyer, 2025b).

The collapse arose from prolonged instability and a mishandled search. Firing Franklin early without a successor—whiffing on BYU's Kalani Sitake and others who extended contracts—left interim Terry Smith exposed, as recruits prioritized leadership (Dohn, 2025). Franklin's "players' coach" rapport enabled poaching, while Penn State's analytics-heavy culture alienated those seeking roles amid a 6-6 finish (Finebaum, 2025). This "embarrassing" void (Dohn, 2025) forces reliance on transfers and a February scramble, potentially cascading into 2026 portal losses and stalling Big Ten aspirations for years.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia signed 22 of 29 commits for a top-10 class (No. 6 post-flip), anchored by five-star linebacker Xavier Griffin (No. 17 overall), but lost No. 1 QB Jared Curtis to Vanderbilt, dropping from No. 2 and leaving no 2026 signal-caller (Ivins, 2025; Lederman, 2025a). JUCO OT Jarmaine Mitchell also flipped to Arizona State (No. 60 overall) (Robinson, 2025). Four-star TE Kaiden Prothro provided mitigation, but the QB void echoes the 2023 loss to Nebraska of Dylan Raiola (Wiltfong, 2025).

Curtis's exit highlighted depth as a double-edged sword: Behind returning starter Gunner Stockton (another eligibility year) and Ryan Puglisi, Curtis faced a 2-3 year wait, while Vanderbilt offered Day 1 snaps post-Pavia (Lederman, 2025a). Kirby Smart's volume machine (29 signees) excels at talent accumulation but can seem impersonal to spotlight-seekers; Curtis's second decommit (first October 2024) stemmed from Vanderbilt's October push, hometown pull, and Lea's extension trumping Athens' prestige (Robinson, 2025). This rare chink tests Smart's adaptability—Georgia rebounds with bodies, but QB uncertainty could hinder their two-time title defense, forcing portal or 2027 focus.

Texas Longhorns

Texas signed 23 for a top-10 class (No. 8), including five-star QB Dia Bell (No. 9 overall) and EDGE Richard Wesley (reclass from 2027), but lost two elite DLs: four-star DT Vodney Cleveland to UNC (post-Bill Belichick visit) and four-star Corey Wells (plus brother Chris) to Auburn under new coach Alex Golesh (Longhorn Wire Staff, 2025). Flips like three-star ATH Toray Davis (from UCLA) offset some damage, but the SEC transition exposed vulnerabilities (Burnt Orange Nation, 2025).

Losses reflected roster crowding and rival momentum: Post-2025 CFP, recruits feared 2028 benches amid depth; Belichick's revenue-share pitch and Golesh's family tie (Wells' brother) capitalized on fatigue (Longhorn Wire Staff, 2025). Steve Sarkisian's late adds (e.g., four-star EDGE Jamarion Carlton from Baylor) stabilized, but overexpansion diluted focus, with Tennessee charging (South, 2025). The class remains elite, but DL gaps demand portal fixes in a grueling SEC, testing Sarkisian's management.

In summary, this signing day underscored recruiting's volatility: Winners like Vanderbilt harnessed momentum and personalization, while losers like Penn State suffered from voids. With February remaining, staff hires and retention will determine 2026's true legacy.